The new breeding season is almost upon us. Starting in early February, stud farms, that are now quiet and peaceful places, will begin to function with the efficiency of large factories. Stallions all over the US will go to ‘work’ and start covering mares that will produce one of the most expensive and beautiful of agricultural products—the racehorse. As the beginning of the season comes closer, no group of stallions invites more speculation and is awaited with more fervor then the freshman Stallions. Fresh off the racetrack, these stallions have nothing but promise ahead of them. Any of them could be the next Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector or Danehill.
Unfortunately, the reality is that most of these new stallions will fail at stud. This year will bring them the best book of mares they will ever breed to and the highest fees they will earn. Even those that are successful will still charge a lower stud fee in the next year or two. However, breeders know that market demand will be very strong for the first yearlings out of these stallions. They know that there is no better return on investment available to them than the returns that are produced by the offspring of the first year stallion.
It is important to find value when selecting a freshman sire. Although this group consistently produces superior returns than the general market for breeders, overpaying for a stud fee can greatly diminish the upside of the investment.
There are 58 sires with stud fees above $3,000 that are entering stud in the US this year. Below are my predictions of the best and worst values in this group.
Best Values
Bernardini ($100,000 AP Indy-Cara Rafaela by Quiet American) Bernardini proved to be one of the best horses of his generation. He won 6 of 8 starts and earned just over $3 Million. His dam is the Grade 1 winning mare Cara Rafaela. He is also physically the best looking horse to retire to stud this year. After seeing horses like Giant’s Causeway, Fusaichi Pegasus, Mineshaft and Ghostzapper retire to stud with stud fees higher than $100,000, I believe that even at this prize he is still a fantastic buy. Darley has priced him very conservatively; no doubt they want to have a high demand for his services and pick and chose the best mares for his first book.
War Front ($12,500 Danzig-Starry Dreamer by Rubiano) great looking colt that is also impeccably bred. He hit the board in 10 of 13 starts with 8 triple digit Beyers including a high of 114. By the great sire of sires Danzig, he is very well priced and should be very well supported at Claiborne.
Bellamy Road ($12,500 Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary by Deputed Testimony) He is a fantastic individual, winner of 4 races in 7 starts. He was the favorite for the KY Derby off a track record performance in the Wood where he recorded a 120 Beyer. He had speed to spare and showed great ability at two, he was very badly managed as a 3 year old and injuries did not allow us to see his true potential. He is very well priced; mostly because he does not have a fashionable pedigree, but he will throw good looking foals and breeders who believe in him will get a good return.
Worst Values
Giacomo ($12,500 Holy Bull-Set them Free by Stop the Music) Adena sometimes asks a little too much money for some of their stallions. Giacomo is no exception. The KY Derby winner is still not a good buy at this price. He showed he was a useful graded stakes performer but was never able to prove that his Derby win was nothing short than a fluke. With only 3 wins from 16 starts, no wins at a distance of less than a mile and a sixteenth and being by Holy Bull, who is not exactly a sire of sires, we do not think Giacomo will be a good value to breeders.
Borrego ($20,000 El Prado-Sweet as Honey by Strike the Gold) Borrego ran his best as an older horse, most notably in back to back Grade 1 races, first in California and then an incredible romp in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in New York. He was a very good horse at 3 winning and placing in many of the elite 3yo stakes and managed two wins as a 2yo. So it is not out of the question that Borrego will make it as a sire. However, he was a distance horse better suited for longer distances as shown by the fact that he never won going less than a mile. What bothers me most about him is that he was not a very nice yearling; he was awkward and did not come into his own until later in life. Breeders should take that into consideration before ending up with a non-commercial yearling and 20k in the hole.
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13 comments:
Love your blog! What are your thoughts on Bandini? He's not a first year sire, but do you have an opinion on another walmac stallion, Eavesdropper? Keep up the good work!
Bandini ($17,500) a winner of 5 out of 9 starts, Bandini won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes G1 impressively by 6 lengths and over $600K. He also broke the mile track record at Gulfstream (1:34.19) as a four year old beating the likeds of Wondering Boy and Silver Train, which proved that his 3yo form was not a fluke. He is an outstanding individual physically. I think he is very very well priced at this level. The only draw back is that his maximum Beyer is only a 103. I would not hesitate to breed to him at this price, whether to sell or to race, and I don’t think that he will have any trouble filling up with a quality book of mares. I also think he will be very commercial and through some good looking high priced yearlings at the sales.
Eavesdropper ($7,500) you cannot get a better pedigree than with this prospect. He is by Kingmambo out of the great Weekend Surprise by Secretariat, which makes him a half to AP Indy. He is a stakes winner (at Mountaineer in a $85k affair) and placed in a Grade III race. Physically he is not very big (maybe 15.2) and not an impressive individual. I have not seen foals by him since he only sold one weanling for $32,000. Dean De Renzo and Randall Hartley purchased him for only $235,000 as a stallion prospect and got the black type for him. He has 55 foals on the ground and bred 63 mares in ’06 (although note that he only got 60% foals from mares bred which is low and may signal some fertility issues). His CI for 2006 was only 0.94 which is very low. Of the Kingmambos in the US, only Lemon Drop Kid has been a useful stallion with horses like King Cugat and Parade Ground falling of the wayside. I would like this stallion much more if he was priced at $5,000 or below. If you are breeding to sell I would not use him at all, if the first crop by average mares does not run as two year olds you will not be able to sell the foal at all. If you want to breed to run I would demand more of a discount and try to get him for $5K at the most for the gamble or wait a year or two, to see his first crop go. I do not think that you will see his fee go up during that time.
And your opinion about the emergent Pure Prize?
Pure Prize ($12,500 Storm Cat – Heavenly Prize by Seeking the Gold) is a very well bred son of Storm Cat who has done very well with his two year old this year. He finished in third place in the Freshman Sire list and is very well priced at this level, in fact he is the cheapest sire of the top six in that list. His percentage of stakes winners is higher than the percentage of Street Cry and Johannesburg. He was represented by 5 SW and 6 SP horses. His best son, the unfortunately named Birdbirdistheword, won the Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) and looks like he may develop into a nice three year old. In fact, many of the Pure Prize two year-olds that I have seen give me the impression that they will mature well as three year-olds and that they will handle a distance of ground. I would not hesitate to purchase a yearling by him or a two year-old in training that shows some speed in an upcoming sale. I would definitely recommend breeding to Pure Prize at this price since his already excellent numbers may improve in 2007 as his first crop matures.
What are your thoughts on Dance With Ravens by AP Indy
Dance with Ravens ($7,500 AP Indy – Dance Smartly by Danzig) has all the right credentials to be very successful. He is by AP Indy out of the great race mare Dance Smartly. He has a top class female family that includes stallions Smart Strike, Sky Classic and Regal Classic among others. He was also a graded stakes winner at 2 and finished in the money in 6 of 7 starts. So even though he is by AP Indy which may indicate later development, Dance with Ravens may still be able to produce early maturing foals. He was bred to a full book of 126 mares in 2006 so there will be a good number of them hitting the tracks soon. In addition, being based in Maryland will be of help to him since his progeny will be able to take advantage of the state bred program and earn extra income. He has a lot of upside if his first foals show talent; and even if they don’t the investment of $7,500 is very reasonable. I really like this stallion and I would not be surprised to see him move to KY in the near future like Malibu Moon before him.
Any thoughts on yes It's True? I feel he and Successful Appeal are similar in a lot of ares i.e. improving the mares bred to him.
Yes Its True ($35,000 Is It True – Clever Monique by Clever Trick) he is one of the best looking horses out there. He has great conformation and represents a very good outcross for many mares. He has a very solid AEI of 1.86 vs. CI of 1.61. He does upgrade his mares some but not as much as horses like Successful Appeal (AEI 2.46 v. 1.38) in this price range. His percentage of stakes winners is a good 5%. A solid buy at this level but for the price range we believe that Successful Appeal is better value with a better AEI and percentage of stake winners.
I'd like to know your opinion of Eurosilver. I have seen him in person at the track and thought he was a big, beautifully built horse. Do you anticipate good demand for his offspring?
Eurosilver ($12,500 Unbridled's Song – Russian Tango, by Nijinsky II) is a well balanced racehorse that ran well enough at two to win the Breeders’ Futurity G2 at Keeneland but then did not win another stakes race until his four-year old season when he won the Skip Away H. G3. Broodmares in foal to Eurosilver averaged about $46,000. I think that his first crop will sell well enough, although I do not expect him to be one of the heavy hitters at the sale partly because a large number of yearlings will be offered by him. He only has a 1.82 of CI but with a first book of 179 Mares his first crop will be making some noise when it hits the track.
Iam from india where we only have turf races and stallions coming from ireland and great britain with the ratings of 105 to 116 do very well( higher rated stallions cant be afforeded by the stud owners ), we have Placerville who is the current champion sire here and Ex champion sire Razeen ( would love to read ur comments on them both ) and current high priced failure is China visit who is mostly being bred to mares from Razeen ( northen dancer ).I would like to know about the most economicaly viable turf stallions which are value for money in USA.
Help, I am fairly new to horse racing. I love the first time starters for succssful appeal winning percentage. Is there a way I can find out when any of his offspring are running and where?
Giacomo is a steal at $12,500
He will be a huge turf influence stallion. He maybe a gem in the making when it comes to stallions.
The fact that he will be an outcross to many us types with stamina ability to me makes him a steal at 12,500. Watch the ride.
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